We could expect a Tigres vs. Inter Miami rematch in the quarterfinals after their fun group-stage showdown. Maybe FC Cincinnati would end up hosting shootout specialists Cruz Azul. And surely back-to-back Liga MX champion Club América wouldn’t have trouble with St. Louis City, right?
This is, of course, why we play the games - and why even the ‘experts’ struggle to predict what will happen in Leagues Cup. As you watched and now have read about on LeaguesCup.com, both defending champion Inter Miami and Liga MX power Tigres were eliminated as the Columbus Crew and New York City FC push on in the competition. The Philadelphia Union and Mazatlán will square off, getting past Cincy and Cruz Azul to move into the quarterfinals. And while América moved on to the next round with a 4-2 win over St. Louis, it endured some very nervous moments to get there, trailing for significant portions of Tuesday’s nightcap.
Let’s take a look back at three thoughts from the Round of 16 and three storylines this “expert” is intrigued by in the next round - for whatever that’s worth:
Every underdog has its day
There are eight teams left in the Leagues Cup. Two of them were in the bottom three when the tournament’s seeds were produced ahead of the groups release.
Mazatlán, ranked 43rd in the combined table, and the Colorado Rapids in 44th each have been able to
After getting out of the group stage in 2023, Mazatlán has engineered a deeper run thanks in no small part to veteran Mexican manager Victor Manuel Vucetich. A manager known for having the “Midas touch” once again seems to have turned a project into gold.
How else to explain that Cruz Azul, which had become something of an expert in shootouts suddenly misfired against the Kraken’s inexperienced goalkeeper Ricardo Gutierrez with the goalkeeper making a pair of saves and summer signing Giorgos Giakoumakis firing his shot off the post allowing Mazatlan to advance.
The Rapids also are playing a different type of soccer than they were last year with manager Chris Armas emphasizing verticality and creating more scoring opportunities - something that has served the team well in MLS play but may work even better in the knockout format.
It showed Tuesday with Djordje Mihailovic engineering opportunities for the Rapids and, eventually, the winning goal in their Round of 16 contest with Toluca arriving in the 96th minute from the feet of Darren Yapi, a 19-year-old who has been in the Rapids setup since 2016.
Now, both underdogs can dream of a top-three finish and a Concacaf Champions Cup place that may have felt unachievable just a week or two ago.
The late show
Yapi’s winner in the 96th minute was hardly the only twist ending Tuesday night.
Columbus Crew SC trailed by two goals before closing like an Olympic sprinter, going into their kick and finding three goals unanswered in a 13-minute period. Once Christian Ramirez had the opener and Diego Rossi put things back level just two minutes later, you could feel the moment shift at Lower.com Field, Rossi finding the winner not long after in a jaw-dropping late push.
St. Louis City took a 2-1 lead past the 75th minute against Club América before a thunderous header from Diego Valdes in the 79th minute started to shift the balance. Las Aguilas added a Brian Rodriguez goal from the penalty spot and with St. Louis’ goalkeeper up, Rodrigo Aguirre hit on the counter attack to put the finishing touches on a 4-2 victory.
And spare a thought for Cruz Azul, the current Liga MX leader which engineered its own late turnaround only to see the comeback fall short in the penalty shootout. Despite a second yellow card to Gonzalo Piovi just after the halftime break resulting in the team playing with 10 men, La Maquina manufactured goals in the 84th and 91st minute to rally from Mazatlan’s two first-half goals and force that penalty shootout.
Golaaaaaazos
Speaking of incredible goals, there were several for fans to enjoy on the highlight reel of Tuesday’s action. My favorite was Toluca forward Paulinho scoring for the Diablos Rojos to tie the match. As a first-time cross came in from Jesus Gallardo on the wing, the Portuguese attacker realized he needed to use his trailing leg to make contact and sent a spinning, back-heeled shot past Zack Steffen and into the net.
América playmaker Diego Valdes, whose Copa América was cut short by injury, got back to scoring with a soaring header. And while it was a surprise to see the play run, the quick thinking from New York City FC’s Santi Rodriguez as he picked off a pass from a quickly taken free kick, set up a one-two with a teammate and then finished for what would be NYCFC’s winning goal to vanquish Tigres was another spectacular moment.
So what’s coming up?
There are two Mexican quarterfinalists: Mazatlán and Club América. Yet, both have a path to the first top-three finish that would earn a place in the CCC - both needing to get past MLS opponents as the only head-to-head meeting would be in the final or the third-place game.
For Mazatlán the journey starts against the Philadelphia Union, another MLS rival after the team beat D.C. United at Audi Field and advanced from a group that also included Nashville SC, last tournament’s runners-up, and the New England Revolution.
América needs to see off the Colorado Rapids and, if It can do that, would go into a game that would give the oddsmakers fits against the winner of the quarterfinal match between LAFC and the Seattle Sounders - both of whom have been dominant in their contests to this point.
At the hub of it all
This year saw the first-ever hub sites deployed in Leagues Cup, rewarding the four best-ranked Mexican teams with the opportunity to select the sites where they’ll host their matches.
Not every team made full use of its hub privileges, but América may. If Las Aguilas beat the Colorado Rapids at current hub site Dignity Health Sports Park, they’ll host the semifinal in California as well. While other teams have had to undertake some longer journeys, América has been at home in Southern California, first at San Diego’s Snapdragon Stadium where they dispatched Atlas and then in Carson.
There’s no denying the atmosphere was that of América home match Tuesday. As América pushed to rally in the second half against St. Louis City, fans in the end of the stadium usually occupied with Galaxy supporters set off flares and smoke, creating a cloud of yellow and helping push the team on to the win.
Tigres bowed out of the competition last night but also made the most of its hub, winning both games it played in Houston where it set up shop and enjoyed hub privileges until the knockout round. Monterrey and Chivas didn’t take full advantage, falling in the group stage despite holding hub privileges into the knockout stages.
Will Leagues Cup experience play a role?
There are two quarterfinalists in the 2024 Leagues Cup who also made it this far in 2023.
Despite a rocky MLS campaign thus far with six wins in 25 matches, the Philadelphia Union once again are at the precipice of earning a berth to the Concacaf Champions Cup, which they did with a third-place finish in 2023. The Union find themselves in a similar situation to last year, facing the upstart Liga MX squad that surprised everyone and made it to this point.
Los Angeles FC got to this point last year and fell short to Monterrey, which eventually finished fourth. LAFC had an early lead in that quarterfinal contest with Denis Bouanga opening the scoring in the 2nd minute at the Rose Bowl. Mateusz Bogusz made it 2-0 later in the first half, but a Sergio Canales penalty and a pair of goals after the 80th minute sunk the Black and Gold’s hopes of lifting the trophy.
This time around, they have to go much farther than Pasadena, heading to Seattle to square off with a Sounders team that didn’t win a 2023 Leagues Cup contest.
Will experience in this type of situation play a role? Or have the Sounders learned enough from convincing wins in the Round of 32 over the LA Galaxy and the 4-0 throttling of Pumas in the Round of 16?
Better to let it play out on the field than try to offer an “expert” opinion.
